LME Nickel Stocks down 24 MT to 278,790 MT

Markets: Stocks made it a three-peat yesterday, rising again as the Fed made the expected move of not changing interest rates.

As expected, the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee left interest rates unchangedyesterday. And in the future, you can expect even less from the committee because Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he’d have it set rates less often going forward:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided yesterday to maintain the 3.75% to 4.00% interest rate benchmark, despite two dissenters believing an immediate increase is necessary to help quell inflation.
• Also, Warsh said that starting in 2027, only seven of the eight FOMC meetings will be used to set rates, and that ratio will shift to 6:2 in 2028.

For now…

Warsh’s stated reason for holding interest rates steady amid “elevated” inflation is to wait for more information. That includes this morning’s latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report, which is widely expected to show costs are continuing to rise.

My two dissents: After a unanimous vote to raise rates last month, two voters felt another quarter-point hike was prudent yesterday. They reasoned that the causes for inflation have spread beyond the Iran war, including massive infrastructure spending by AI companies driving up prices of computer chips and components.

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Contrary to expectations—and to exit polls late Tuesday night in Israel that showed the opposition in the lead—Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition won 53 seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament, the Knesset, while Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc took 48, and the two Arab parties won a combined total of 19. None reached the 61-seat majority required to form a government.

As in any parliamentary system, Israelis don’t vote for an executive branch or a prime minister. They vote for a party, and the parties then negotiate among themselves to form a parliamentary majority. In Israel’s case, a governing coalition needs 61 seats in the Knesset. Once a majority is secured, the coalition can vote in a government.

A minority government occurs when a party or bloc doesn’t have a majority of seats in the Knesset but has a plurality. Netanyahu could form a minority government if 53 seats voted for him, 48 voted against him and, for some reason, the Arab parties abstained. But the Arab parties, which are diametrically opposed to Netanyahu, won’t do that. So he has no path to a governing majority unless he pulls people over from the Eisenkot coalition.

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TODAY’S TECH ALERT:  Just as predicted years ago.  

WOW! A company that serves K-12 schools started mailing breach letters and offering monitoring to kids. Meanwhile, 23andMe went bankrupt and sold customers’ DNA and spit samples to a new owner. Nearly 7 million people were caught in its 2023 breach. Your kids’ Social Security numbers and your family’s genes are all out there.

China 

nickel in Jan-Sept

dipped 1.9% YoY. Nickel metal imports in Sept rose by 15% MoM to 212.7kt.

Cathode materials output was mixed - ternary materials lost momentum

amid weak domestic demand, although exports edged up. LFP output

continued to grow, while LCO output fell further due to softness in the 3C

market.

For motive battery production, output growth for ternary batteries slowed

amid subdued sales of premium extended-range vehicles. In contrast, LFP

battery production maintained its momentum and dominant position. LFP

batteries are expected to continue to account for most of the production

growth into Oct. Energy storage battery production schedules into

Oct eased slightly but remained on a positive growth trajectory. With

imports no longer profitable, China’s cobalt metal imports fell further in

September, although long-term contract volumes continued to flow. For

cobalt intermediates, imports edged up in September, reflecting the high

volumes shipped from the DRC in the previous months.

Answer to today's trivia question: Americans are on track to spend $13.5 billion this