LME Nickel Stocks down 558 MT to 274,152 MT

Traders needed a “Lemon, it’s Wednesday” reminder yesterday, after the three major indexes closed in the red due to a high inflation reading and renewed aggression in the Iran war.

Inflation for May reached 4.2%, the highest level since April 2023, driven by the energy price shock stemming from the Iran war, according to the consumer price index reportreleased yesterday. But the month-over-month increase was smaller for May than April, in a sign that the worst of the price spikes may be behind us:

• Another good sign is that gas prices have ticked down slightly so far in June.
• Of course, prices continuing to decrease will depend on the US achieving a durable peace agreement with Iran and oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returning to prewar levels.

When asked about the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday, President Trump said, “I love the inflation,” and that oil barrel prices are coming down because “we took out the other night, 22 ships,” seemingly referring to the US getting ships through the strait under cover of darkness in a clandestine operation.

US strikes on Iran continued for a second day. The round of attacks began at midnight on Thursday in Tehran and continued until about 4:30am local time. President Trump said the strikes were launched because Iran was taking “too long to negotiate” a peace deal. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said early Thursday local time that it had responded with attacks of its own on US military assets in Kuwait and Bahrain. Also yesterday, the US military said it had shot and disabled the oil tanker Settebello in the Gulf of Oman because it violated the American blockade of Iran. An Indian official said this morning that three Indian nationals were killed in the attack on the vessel.

Social Security to be depleted by 2034, board says

By Elizabeth Black

The combined Social Security reserves for disability insurance, survivors' insurance, and retirement are projected to be spent by 2034, according to a new report out this week. The Social Security Board of Trustees, which comprises four members of the Trump administration, released its annual report on Tuesday.

If Social Security reserves are depleted, the funds would only be able to pay out 83% of scheduled benefits in 2034, according to the report. The survivors' insurance and retirement fund could run out slightly earlier, in 2032, but the government could combine it with the disability insurance fund to continue full payments until 2034, according to the report. The projection was consistent with the prior year’s findings, the board wrote.

The reserves in both funds dropped by $160 billion in 2025 and are now at a combined $2.56 trillion. About 70 million people received Social Security benefits in 2025, while roughly 185 million people contributed to the funds via payroll taxes.

The Brazilian mining giant Vale expects an even greater contribution from its copper, nickel and gold operations to its 2026 results.

The company announced that the consolidated EBITDA – earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization – of its basic metals division, called Vale Base Metals, should reach 28% of the company’s total, above the previous projection of 26%.

"This estimate considers, as its main assumptions, the average prices of copper, nickel, and gold in 2026, based on the average of sell-side analysts’ estimates available in May 2026", the company said in a statement.

Vale, the world’s largest iron ore producer, has given clear signs that it is seeking to increase its exposure to the base metals segment in light of the profitability of the segment.

In 2025, the basic metals division accounted for 22% of Vale’s EBITDA, an increase compared to the 10% recorded in 2024. The company projects that the basic metals segment will reach a 35% share of its EBITDA from 2035 onward.

The company plans to invest US$1.6 billion (bn) in its copper and nickel operations this year. Starting in 2027, the annual investment of the basic metals division should reach US$2bn.

According to the most recent estimates, the company is seeking to achieve production of up to 500,000t of copper in 2030, an increase of more than 30% compared to the 382,400t produced in 2025, and to reach 700,000t in 2035.

For nickel, Vale intends to expand production to 200.000t in 2026 and 250.000t in 2030, compared with the 177.000t produced in 2025.

Answer to today's trivia question: Franklin D. Roosevelt